Navigating Crosswinds. Investing Through Change.
I’m not just a numbers guy. I was never drawn to finance because of flashing tickers or abstract graphs — it was the human part that intrigued me. The real decisions people make when markets tremble, when currencies shift, when news hits like a tidal wave. That’s why THE MACRO GPS exists. I built it to cut through the noise, decode the mechanics, and bring clarity to confusion — but more importantly, to offer you a compass. My goal isn’t just to advise; it’s to empower, to make resilience tangible, and to show that strategic allocation isn’t some institutional mystery — it’s how everyday investors, families, and business owners stay ahead. So, as we turn the page to August, know this: I’m walking this road with you. Let’s chart it wisely.
📖 Where We’ve Been: July’s Story
Monetary policy hit a new paradox: central banks eased, yet economies lagged. We saw rate cuts from the Fed, PBOC, and ECB, but the stimulus effect? Muted. Think of shouting into a crowd that’s already moved on.
Inflation lingered in the shadows: not the headline-making spike, but the quiet kind—sticky services prices, creeping wage gaps, localized supply chains keeping the heat on.
Markets blinked, then recalibrated: U.S. consumer sentiment dipped into historic lows, and bond yields danced to a tune of cautious risk-off. Yet Asia ex-Japan held firm, with India and China continuing their structural growth sprint.
July reminded us that monetary firepower isn’t what it used to be. It’s not the tool that dictates the tempo anymore. We're now investing in a world where resilience, not reaction, leads.
🔭 Looking Ahead: What August Might Reveal
As we turn the page, August brings with it a new set of questions:
Will Asia continue to outperform amid G7 fatigue? With ASEAN resilience, China’s innovation runway, and India’s domestic consumption narrative, this region remains our compass.
Can dividends outpace inflation? We’re still leaning into high-yield plays across Southeast Asia and defensive income generators in Hong Kong and Singapore.
Will U.S. recession markers intensify? The 10y2y yield curve steepened again flirting with post-inversion zones. History suggests caution, and we’re preparing accordingly.
So, what does this mean for us, as investors?
It means leaning into resilience. We’re keeping exposure to gold as a core hedge — it’s been steady while everything else wobbles. We’re shifting our focus toward Asia’s growth stories, away from overleveraged, slow-growing economies. And we’re tilting into dividend plays where the yield outpaces inflation — especially here in Asia.
Let’s dive into this month’s issue. We’ll walk through the key indicators, unpack what they mean for your portfolio, and explore how to navigate what might be a new phase for the global economy—one that rewards adaptability more than certainty.
Thanks for being part of this journey.
Sincerely,
This Month's Issue:
THE MACRO GPS
In the following Sections I share my thoughts, analysis and asset allocation strategy based on the incoming data presented to us. We track and monitor:
📉 U.S. recession indicators, such as unemployment trends, yield curve patterns, and consumer confidence indices, offer early signals of economic downturns, enabling proactive decision-making.
🌦️ Global economic conditions, including GDP growth rates, trade dynamics, and inflation pressures, provide insights into the interconnected nature of economies and their cascading impacts on various markets.
🚩 Market cycle markers, help identify shifts in investment opportunities and risks. Together, these metrics allow investors stay ahead of economic trends and optimize their strategies for resilience and growth.
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